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BWFC Guest Article: Yeah, But When?




Thanks, Nicky for your article and work on research. I don't think Nicky is panicking just yet, but there is definite concern in his prose.

A little less conversation, a little more action, please... Am I right, Nicky? Enjoy...






Our fans are split somewhat evenly between pessimistic and ridiculously optimistic and hopeful. Today, I`m going to talk about the latter and the belief that the fans, players and managers have.

When you listen to a Dougie Freedman interview, he has two default responses to a match: a) if we win- "The lads did very well, we`re playing wonderful football and (insert 5 goal-a-season striker here) is one of the best finishers in the country" b) if we lose- "Everything`s going wrong for us, we really did deserve three points, but I`m confident that by next match we will have cut out all those mistakes, and we`ll win."

So at this stage in the season, we`ve only won one match, so we`ve heard a lot of default response 'b`. While in some respects, that is the right response, as he`s not gonna just say "OK, we`re never gonna win, let`s just give up" but some fans need to take their heads out of the clouds. We`re not in a good position at the moment. After 13 games, we`re 21st. It`s all well and good saying that we`re on a 5 match unbeaten run, but we need to convert those draws into wins. I think Dougie has started to recognize that we need things to change by bringing a few hungry players in on loan. However, we need him to turn things round, rather than just try to.

To show how much better we should be doing I`ve estimated the rough value of our squad, as well as that of the three clubs below us, and the two clubs at the top of the league. I calculated that out of Burnley, Leicester, Bolton, Yeovil, Barnsley and Sheffiled Wednesday, our squad was the most valuable, closely followed by Leicester, then current league leaders Burnley, then Sheffield Wednesday, then Barnsley, then Yeovil. Our squad is significantly more valuable than that of the currently league leaders- yet we`re 1 point out of the relegation zone. I also estimated that our squad is the third most valuable in the league, after QPR and Wigan.

People constantly saying that it will all get better is somewhat frustrating. While I understand that we have to remain optimistic and keep faith, we need to sort out our problem/s. There are many suggestions as to how to get us winning games, and the way we should do this is by looking out our main problems.

People are constantly criticizing our defense and individuals, such as Bogdąn. I looked at our goals for to goals against ratio. And yes, we`ve conceded a lot of goals- 20 to be precise, and 16 teams had conceded fewer than us. While that isn`t great, it sounds good when compared to the amount of goals we`ve scored. Only 2 teams have scored fewer goals than us, 1 of which has a game in hand. In 13 games, we`ve scored 9 goals. This is a huge problem that isn`t being addressed.

People are saying that Beckford will turn things around. Well, that`s great- but he actually needs to do it. The other strikers aren`t doing much to help the cause either. David N`Gog has scored 11 goals in 66 matches for us. That`s ridiculous. God knows why we signed him, his Liverpool scoring record was 9 in 63- and we paid 5 million for him. His holdup play is good along with a few other aspects of his game, but if you can`t score, you shouldn`t be a striker. Craig Davies has barely featured, and while you can`t entirely blame this on him, he can`t be doing everything right in training when he is fit.

While this article might sound pessimistic and harsh, I`m not trying to be. We just need to remember what`s actually happening on the football pitch rather than saying 'Oooh, that was unlucky` or 'He`ll be very good in 5 years time`. We need to start turning things around, and I`m very pro-Dougie. If we start stringing together a few wins, then we could well find ourselves in a much better position.
The Journalist

Writer: Nicky Crompton Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Wednesday October 30 2013

Time: 9:51AM

Your Comments

Not to do Nicky a disservice here, but generally I trust transfermarkt.co.uk as a reasonably impartial advisor as to current squad values - each change is basically voted for and ratified. They have our squad valued at £36.5m, with £6.5m of that tied up in long term injuries. They put our squad at the fourth most valuable in the league (behind QPR, Wigan and Blackburn). But is it not perhaps telling that Wigan's £51.5m men are languishing in 14th place? Perhaps OC has a flair for collecting expensive rubbish, like some sort of posh womble. As it happens we've scored 11 goals rather than 9 (9 is how many Charlton and Yeovil have scored) in 13 matches, but that's still fairly awful. Hopefully Moritz can do something about that - the Crystal Palace fans are still really quite upset that he left, particularly when they heard that he tweeted "about time" in response to the news of Ian Holloway's sacking - must have been some bad blood there, they really do feel they've lost an important player, and he's sat warming either our treatment table or our bench all the time at the moment. No striker can score a goal if they don't get the ball in a decent position. Anyway, for reference, transfermarkt.co.uk's full squad valuation list follows: Queens Park Rangers: £59,000,000, Wigan Athletic: £51,500,000, Blackburn Rovers: £37,000,000, Bolton Wanderers: £36,500,000, Reading FC: £35,000,000, Nottingham Forest: £29,500,000, Watford FC: £28,000,000, Brighton & Hove Albion: £25,000,000, Leicester City: £24,000,000, Middlesbrough FC: £21,500,000, Derby County: £20,500,000, Leeds United: £20,000,000, Blackpool FC: £19,500,000, Burnley FC: £16,500,000, Barnsley FC: £15,000,000, Millwall FC: £14,500,000, Birmingham City: £14,000,000, Huddersfield Town: £12,500,000, Sheffield Wednesday: £12,000,000, AFC Bournemouth: £11,000,000, Charlton Athletic: £10,500,000, Ipswich Town: £9,100,000, Yeovil Town: £8,100,000, Doncaster Rovers: £6,700,000.
robmoss2k
One thing I would say in Dougie's favour is that when he brought in 3 seemingly underwhelming loans we stopped losing and the players in question turned out to be some of our best performers. Feeney will be missed. This also happened when he took over. We werent winning many games initially, it was slow progress and he was doing no better than Coyle had been doing. Then we loaned Dawson & Spearing and there was an instant improvement. The question is why with a number of additions and only the obvious loss of Dawson have we gone backwards? and when you are able to answer that in the comments on here the bigger question is why do the fans know when the highly paid manager doesn't seem to?
Back of the Net
'Posh Womble'- love it!
bwfc_85
I'm going to have to start calling him that.
robmoss2k
N'Gog, 11 in 66 for us, 9 in 63 for Liverpool. He's consistent . . . ah that must be why Coyle signed him
adlington2
Whilst Nicky is right about us needing goals, even if Jermaine Johnson is firing on all cylinders he's still not going to get all the goals we need to get promoted. We need around 75 goals (I'm working on an average of 1.5 goals need to win matches, i.e. some 1-0 wins, some 2-0, 2-1 wins) to be in the running for promotion. If Beckford scored 30 of them it still needs someone else to score 45 and that's where the real problem is. Who in midfield is going to get 10 plus goals. Eagles doesn't look the player he was last season, yet we know he is one of the few capable of scoring. The rest of that midfield don't look like doing it. Dougie seems to have realised this by playing two strikers, only he should have left Ngog on the bench and started with Craig Davies. Perhaps we should get Matt Taylor back he was capable of chipping in 10 goals and he was available for transfer. The whole thing is very depressing and it will take a long time to get us moving upwards again. It's not DF's fault he's doing his best with the few resources he has. What is disappointing, considering the "garbage" Crystal Palace bought, why they didn't fancy any of our players, who they could have got as many would have jumped at the chance (lol).
Nigel Greenwood
 

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