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Bolton Wanderers: The Sums

Bolton Wanderers: The Sums
Hope everyone`s having a lovely lazy Sunday in the Vital Bolton family. I`ll leave the Middlesbrough match report to my new co-editor, BWFC_85 (who has been just fantastic with his posts in recent weeks), but I thought I`d give you an insight into my very statty morning!


Yes, that is only two games. However, with the seven teams directly below Champions Cardiff not sure where they are going to finish, and all the twists and turns that just one Championship can provide, it`s not as easy as you might think. I`ll start by declaring that the current top eight will finish in the top eight come 4th May. There are only three teams that could mathematically break in at this late stage; Birmingham, Charlton and Millwall. However, looking at their fixtures, especially Millwall`s congested calendar, I am willing to rule them out.

I`ve also decided that Hull will finish second. They play Barnsley away, which I expect them to win, and Cardiff at home on the final day of the season, which after the Bluebird`s blip the week earlier (we`ll get to that), will be a defeat. This will put them on 81 points, enough to finish above Watford whatever their results. So, we have six teams to place between third and eighth; where will they finish? Let`s look at each team individually.

WATFORD - currently on 74pts
Leicester (A) - WIN
Leeds (H) - WIN

Watford have been flying high for the majority of the season, and I see them putting a strong finish to the end of the year. They will win both matches and finish on 80pts and comfortably in third.

BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION - currently on 69pts
Leeds (A) - WIN
Wolves (H) - DRAW

Brighton are looking good after their 6-1 trouncing of Blackpool yesterday, and I expect them to carry that into their game against drowning Leeds. However, I expect them to get a point at best against Wolves on the final day. The fake Wanderers will be fighting for their lives in their second successive relegation scrap, and I expect them to push Brighton right out of their comfort zone. They should finish the season on 73pts (no spoilers as to where they will finish yet).

CRYSTAL PALACE - currently on 67pts
Blackburn (A) - LOSE
Millwall (A) - LOSE
Peterborough (H) - WIN

Palace have been flagging as of late, and I don`t expect to see them get promoted this season. Blackburn will claim all three points when they play next Saturday, and I expect Millwall to beat them three days later. However, I see them putting in a good performance at Selhurst Park against Peterborough, and finishing the season on 70pts.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST - currently on 64pts
Millwall (A) - LOSE
Leicester (H) - WIN

Forest have just started to go off the boil after a spectacular run that coincided with the return of Billy Davies as manager. They will lose narrowly to Millwall, but I think they`ll finish off Leicester to end the season on 67pts.

LEICESTER CITY - currently on 65pts
Watford (H) - LOSE
Forest (A) - LOSE

Leicester may have enjoyed a victory against us in the midweek, but I think that was the final victory in a (footballing cliché alert) season of two halves for one of the favourites for promotion this season. They will lose to Watford, and I expect them to lose to Forest to end up on 65pts and narrowly outside the playoff places.

So, where does that leave us?

THE MIGHTY BOLTON WANDERERS - currently on 66pts
Cardiff (A) -WIN
Blackpool (H) -WIN

Oooh, I`m confident. Cardiff players will be waking up this morning with the mightiest of hangovers, and I expect the hangovers to keep coming throughout the rest of the week. Meanwhile, Dougie`s men will be training like all the Rocky montages rolled into one, and we will gatecrash their title party with a well-earnt victory. We`ll follow this up by beating Blackpool comfortably on the final day, to land us 72 points and into the playoff places.

So, the table:

This pits us against Brighton over two legs, then a showdown against Watford for the return to the big league. Bring it on!

Look forward to BWFC_85`s match report and a guest post tomorrow, but from me, have a great rest of your weekend! THE WHITES ARE GOING UP.

Date:Sunday April 21 2013
Time: 1:13PM

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Not sure I agree with all those results al I reckon watford will draw and win so 78 points, brighton will win both so 75 points, palace to win lose and win again so 73 points, Forest to win and draw so 68 points and Leicester to draw both so 68 points and finally us to lose and win so 69 points. I hope I am wrong and we beat Cardiff but I reckon that they will just have the wind in their tails and it is their last home game so will want to put on a show. Anyway that sees us just in the play offs. The Forest Leicester game could be the span er in the works though.
21/04/2013 13:52:00
You are one confident man Mr Parkinson!! Can't see us winning at Cardiff though but can see us slipping into the play-offs. Pretty much with Gav's predictions.
21/04/2013 15:43:00
Its still very tight and too close to call - With Watford still chasing 2nd spot, albeit a long shot, I expect them to beat Leicester which helps us tremendously ( that is a must result for our chances) If Forest get beat or grab a draw at Millwall that also suits us as we can afford to lose at Cardiff and still go through by beating Blackpool. Best of all should Leicester / Forest then draw their final game against one another we have the comfort of only needing one point from our two games to go through. Beware the possibility of Forest beating Millwall ( worst result for us) as they would then leapfrog ourselves by a point, should we lose at Cardiff, leaving them with a final home game against Leicester knowing a win secures them the play off spot, regardless of our result against Blackpool. All in all I hope we can grab at least a draw at Cardiff, should Forest beat Millwall, as our goal difference would keep our nose in front heading into the last game - it would also take the wind out of Forest if they faced having to beat Leicester by 3 or 4 clear goals in order to overtake us. Given all the perms, a draw at Cardiff should be enough going into the final game, but its crucial that Watford beat Leicester and for Millwall not to lose against Forest.
aussie mike
21/04/2013 18:25:00
of course if we beat both Cardiff and Blackpool who gives a toss about Leicester or Forest !
aussie mike
21/04/2013 18:28:00
Mike have you been at the happy pills?
21/04/2013 18:35:00
Just realised that by my predictions, we will guarantee our playoff place next weekend, as we'll put a four point gap between us and Leicester, and a five point gap between us and Forest, with the final game left to play. I really hope I'm right!!!
21/04/2013 18:38:00
As much as I want the whites to be the best they can I sometimes question whether I want to rejoin the carnival that is the premier league. Forgetting the fact that we stand virtually no chance of winning 8 home games all season let alone on the bounce and that as a result we will be battling relegation all season, I really hate the "I didn't see it" culture which has raised its head again due to the animal that is suarez. Despite the generally poor refereeing in this league there is a lot to recommend it. I know this flies in the face of the passion we all feel but chances are we would boss this league next year, we get four more home games and would be far more ready for the premier league the year after. Anyway just a thought.
21/04/2013 18:50:00
I think we'll draw to Cardiff then beat Blackpool.
21/04/2013 22:40:00
There is much comfort in what everyone else has predicted, I hope the gods agree with you. I accept what Boltongav touches on - a swift return to the premiership would mean a hard battle lies ahead, one we could easily lose. However £70 million a season provides the security and freedom to rebuild and improve, currently we are running on financial fumes, our tank is near empty. Every season hereon spent in the championship widens the gulf with the top league, without the money you don't attract or retain the better players, you simply cannot compete in the market, the longer away from it the harder it will be to get back and sooner than later it becomes an impossibility.
aussie mike
22/04/2013 09:46:00
Fair comment Mike.
22/04/2013 11:59:00
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